Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
