A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
